Americans got a brief taste of things to come in 2008, when gasoline prices topped $4.  The experience at $6 will be a more intense version of 2008.  According to author Christopher Steiner, SUVs will be worth nothing.  Diesel engines will be fully embraced by Americans.  Highway deaths will be reduced dramatically.  Obesity rates will drop as more and more people walk to transit stops and bicycle.

As in 2008, Americans will use mass transit in record numbers as $500 monthly gasoline expenses jump to $1,200.  A drop in gasoline consumption will result in a drop in gasoline tax revenues, and the government will not be able to keep pace with roadway maintenance.  In an effort to generate maintenance revenue, highways will become toll roads, further reducing their use.

Although denial runs deep with Americans, people will accept that rising gasoline prices are not temporary, but permanent.  Adjusted for inflation, crude oil prices hit their historic low prices in 1998.  Rising demand for gasoline among 1.8 billion newly middle class people in places like China and India will change energy use forever.

The experience got me thinking more about the logic of company policies toward parking and transit.  Employee parking benefits are common, but transit benefits are not.  Some companies pay $85 to $160 per month for an employee to park at commercial garages or lots.  Others build and maintain their own parking facilities and offer “free” parking to employees.

Both options are expensive and create an artificial demand for parking, unless companies also offer transit benefits.  Parking benefits can drive up the cost of doing business downtown because bus passes are generally less expensive than parking.  Given a choice, many employees will choose to take transit if free passes are offered as an alternative to free parking.